Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
