How The Unusual Campaign Redefined the Typical Coach of the Year Mold.
Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.
In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.
Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.
Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.
Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.
During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!
The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.
Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.
The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.
After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.
The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record
Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.
Still
